The Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued a Red Alert and warned of a significant risk of haze in Singapore in 2023.
In their Haze Outlook 2023 report, the SIIA said that there is a high risk of severe transboundary haze in Singapore, and their Red Alert is the first such alert issued since they started their Haze Outlook reports 4 years ago.
Snippets of SIIA’s press release
There is significant risk of haze occurring this year, especially given predictions that there will be a severe dry spell resulting from El Niño.
The likelihood of a severe transboundary haze incident is rated Red on a scale of Green (Low Risk), Amber (Medium Risk), and Red (High Risk).
This is the key finding from the Haze Outlook 2023 report launched by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) today.
This is the first time that the SIIA has given a Red rating since the Haze Outlook was first published five years ago.
Introduced in 2019, the Haze Outlook provides a risk assessment of the probability of a severe transboundary haze incident affecting ASEAN, especially Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
The Red risk assessment for 2023 is based on three factors: weather (meteorological forecasts), policy (actions taken by governments), and markets (price signals that may drive deforestation, as most forest fires are linked to land clearing for agricultural purposes).
The Red rating is driven primarily by the heatwave expected this year, which will increase the chance of forest and peat fires burning out of control and creating haze.
Temperature and rainfall in the ASEAN region will be adversely impacted by the climate effect known as El Niño. This year will likely also see the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a similar phenomenon, contributing to hotter and drier conditions in ASEAN.
If the heatwave in 2023 is not as strong as expected, then fire prevention efforts and law enforcement in ASEAN should be able to keep the haze under control. But a severe dry spell will test these systems.