Singapore’s Weather Agency Says El Niño May Return By Mid-2026
Singapore’s national weather agency has indicated that El Niño conditions could return by the middle of 2026, following the end of a recent La Niña phase.
According to the latest update from the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), the global climate system known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now shifted back into a neutral state.
The agency said cooling conditions associated with La Niña have weakened significantly, with major atmospheric indicators no longer present by March 2026.
MSS noted that while the Nino3.4 climate index remained slightly negative in March, it had already moved back within the neutral threshold range, signalling that the previous La Niña event has effectively faded.
El Niño Could Develop From June Or July 2026
Climate forecast models cited by MSS suggest ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during April and May 2026.
However, many international climate models are now predicting a possible transition towards El Niño conditions from June or July onwards.
MSS cautioned that forecasting accuracy during this period of the year remains lower than usual, meaning there is still a reasonable possibility that neutral conditions could persist longer instead of developing into a full El Niño event.
If El Niño does form later in 2026, some models suggest it could potentially strengthen into a moderate or even strong episode, although MSS stressed that long-range forecasts still carry significant uncertainty.
The agency also confirmed that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) currently remains neutral, with no major changes expected before June 2026.
What El Niño Means For Singapore
El Niño and La Niña are large-scale climate patterns driven by changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation.
Generally, El Niño events are associated with warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Niña events involve cooler-than-average waters.
For Singapore, ENSO conditions can influence rainfall patterns, temperatures, haze risks, and regional weather systems.
MSS explained that during the first inter-monsoon period between February and May, the influence of ENSO on Singapore’s rainfall tends to be weaker. However, the impact becomes stronger during the Southwest Monsoon season later in the year.
Historically, La Niña periods tend to bring wetter conditions to Singapore, while El Niño events are often linked to drier and hotter weather across parts of Southeast Asia.
Climate Monitoring Remains Important
MSS said ENSO conditions are monitored through several indicators, including sea surface temperatures, trade winds, cloud activity, and sub-surface ocean temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.
The agency uses multiple international datasets and forecasting models to track developing climate patterns and assess potential impacts on Singapore’s weather outlook.
Climate experts globally continue to closely watch ENSO developments due to their major influence on agriculture, water resources, heatwaves, tropical rainfall, and wildfire risks across many regions.
In Southeast Asia, strong El Niño events have historically been associated with prolonged dry spells, water shortages, and increased transboundary haze episodes caused by forest fires in neighbouring countries.