As the Lunar New Year approached, the air in our office grew thick with anticipation. The annual tradition of the Hongbao Toto Draw had us all buzzing. The prospect of winning a jaw-dropping $12 million was enough to make even the most stoic among us crack a smile. But little did I know that this seemingly harmless game of chance would lead me down a rabbit hole of introspection.
The Office Pool Conspiracy
It all started innocently enough. My colleague cornered me by the water cooler. His eyes gleamed with excitement, and he leaned in, whispering as if divulging a state secret.
“The Team strongly recommends that you join the office pool for this draw with $10 each,” he said, his voice conspiratorial. “Yes, the chances of winning $12 million are about 0.001%. However, the probability of you ever earning $10 million doing this job for the rest of your life is absolutely zero. Furthermore, in that 0.001% scenario in which those of us who participate do win, you will be left doing all our work while we go on a holiday. You have till lunchtime to avoid this fate.”
Within minutes, the final holdouts – the puritans and the intellectuals – walked over waving red pieces in surrender. And just like that, I was part of the office pool. The allure of the jackpot had ensnared me, and I willingly handed over my ten-dollar bill.
But today we lose it all and we have to go back office on monday to be a slave. knn
The Real Investment: Long-Term Returns
Where do we find a high probability of acceptable returns? Not in the Toto draw, that’s for sure. Instead, it lies in market-based investment portfolios held into the long term. Consider the S&P500, the US stock market, which is a big component of global market indices. If you had at least 15 years to not take out your money, it did not matter which year from 1928 onwards that you started investing: you would not have had a negative annualized return.
So, while I wait for the Toto numbers to be drawn, I’ll stick to my globally diversified low-cost portfolio. It may not promise instant riches, but it offers something more valuable: a steady path toward financial security. And perhaps, just perhaps, it’s time to stop dreaming of jackpots and focus on building a legacy that lasts beyond the next Hongbao Draw.