Singapore could experience one of its most severe haze seasons in recent years after the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) issued its highest possible warning level in its latest annual Haze Outlook report.
The think-tank announced a rare “red alert”, warning that severe transboundary haze could affect Singapore and neighbouring countries during the second half of 2026.
According to the report, the greatest risk is expected between August and September, when weather conditions are forecast to become exceptionally hot and dry across the region.
Only the Second Red Alert Since 2019
The latest warning marks only the second time the SIIA has assigned a red risk rating since it began publishing its annual Haze Outlook in 2019.
The previous red alert was issued in 2023, a year that eventually saw a significant increase in regional haze incidents.
Researchers warned that Southeast Asia could experience one of its hottest and driest dry seasons on record, creating favourable conditions for widespread forest and peatland fires.
The report also cautioned that the climate trends developing this year could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year ever recorded globally.
El Niño and Climate Conditions Raise Fire Risks
The SIIA attributed the elevated haze risk largely to the return of the El Niño climate pattern, which is already developing.
Researchers also highlighted the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate phenomenon capable of reducing rainfall across the region.
Historically, the most severe haze episodes have occurred when both El Niño and a positive IOD developed simultaneously, including during the major haze events of 1997, 1998, 2015 and 2023.
However, the report noted that even a single climate pattern can significantly increase wildfire risks, pointing to the IOD-driven haze episode experienced in 2019.
Rising Biofuel Demand May Add Pressure
Beyond weather conditions, the report warned that human activities could further increase the likelihood of transboundary haze.
The SIIA pointed to growing global demand for biofuels, partly driven by disruptions affecting energy markets and concerns over fuel security, as a factor that may encourage unsustainable land clearing in parts of Southeast Asia.
Researchers noted that these pressures are expected to continue even if geopolitical tensions ease, as many countries are seeking greater energy independence through increased use of vegetable oil-based fuels.
Singapore experienced several weeks of hazy conditions earlier this year following peat fires in Johor, highlighting how fires in neighbouring regions can quickly affect local air quality.
Regional Cooperation Remains Key
Despite the heightened risk, the SIIA stressed that severe haze is not inevitable if governments, businesses and communities continue strengthening fire prevention efforts.
Indonesia has improved its response capabilities for forest and land fires in recent years, while many plantation companies have expanded fire prevention and monitoring measures.
The institute called for stronger ASEAN cooperation, sustainable land management and increased investment in climate resilience to reduce the risk of another major haze episode.
It added that coordinated regional action will be essential in protecting public health, safeguarding food and energy security, and preventing large-scale transboundary haze during the coming dry season.